Future Dividend Projector iProjects what one share's annual dividend will pay in 5, 10, or 20 years, given a starting dividend and a recent growth rate. Uses a two-stage decay model so the growth rate doesn't run away forever — it tapers toward a long-run average after year 5.

Load from a stock ticker iType a stock ticker (like AAPL) and we'll fill in today's price, dividend, and 5-year dividend growth from public market data. You can edit any value after. — Prices and dividends come from the same public feed used across YieldChampion. Quotes refresh on each fetch; growth rates use trailing 5-year history. — Clicking Refresh re-fetches the latest values and overwrites all autofilled fields. Anything you typed manually after autofilling will be replaced.

Horizon iHow far into the future to project: 5, 10, or 20 years. 10 years is a good default — long enough to show compounding, short enough to be tractable. 20 years stretches into territory where the growth taper dominates, so treat it as illustrative rather than forecast-grade.

Results

Submit the form to see results.

Methodology & full breakdown

Formula

Per year: div_y = div_{y-1} · (1 + r_y), where r_y is the decayed growth rate (5y CAGR for years 1–5, linear taper to long-run by year 15, flat thereafter).

Cumulative cash = Σ div_y for y = 1..N.
Reinvested value (if cost basis given): each year, dividends buy fractional shares at price_y, where price_y grows at (target total return − current yield) per year (target total return = 8%).

Inputs & sources

Current annual dividend
Manual entry, or autofilled from /api/quote when a ticker is loaded.
5-year dividend CAGR
Manual entry, or autofilled from /api/dividends (cached 7 days).
Cost basis
Optional. If supplied, unlocks the reinvested value column and the Yield-on-Cost-in-year-N badge.
Horizon
5, 10, or 20 years.

Modeling assumptions

  • Growth taper. When ON (the default), the dividend growth rate stays at your input CAGR for years 1–5, then linearly decays toward 6% by year 15 and stays at 6% thereafter. This regression-to-mean model prevents cartoonish results (no stock grows its dividend at 25%/year for 30 years). When OFF, growth stays at your input CAGR for the full horizon.
  • Note: the taper only adjusts growth for stocks growing faster than 6%. If your input CAGR is at or below 6%, the projection is identical whether the taper is on or off — there's nothing to taper down to. A 4%-CAGR utility stock will produce the same chart with the taper toggled on or off, and that's correct: the model never assumes a stock will spontaneously start growing faster than its 5-year history.
  • Long-run rate iThe annual growth rate the model assumes a dividend stock will eventually settle into. We use 6% — roughly the long-run nominal price CAGR of the S&P 500 — rather than the 3% used elsewhere on the site, because this calculator is positioned as the optimistic 'projection' tool, not the conservative 'discount valuation' tool. = 6%. This calculator uses 6% (the design target — see “How It Works” for the rationale) rather than the 3% Damodaran dividend-only median used by the underlying math module's default. The deviation is intentional and document-cited.
  • Reinvestment price growth iEach year, the price grows at (target total return − current yield), with target total return set to 8%. This is the same assumption used by the DRIP calculator, kept identical for cross-calc consistency. A stock yielding 4% is therefore assumed to grow its share price 4%/year (8% total return − 4% yield).. Same assumption as the DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) calc: target total return 8% minus the current yield. This is a simplification — actual price returns vary widely.

Limitations

  • No taxes, no fees, no dividend cuts, no spinoffs/special dividends, no FX.
  • Final value is nominal (not inflation-adjusted).
  • The taper is a heuristic, not a forecast. Always pair the projection with a "what if the dividend is cut to zero in year 5" sensitivity check.
How It Works — what does the Future Dividend Projector do?

A dividend projection answers a simple question: if today the company pays $X per share and has been growing that dividend at Y% per year, what will one share be paying in 5, 10, or 20 years?

The naive approach is to just compound forever — div × (1 + g)^N — but this overshoots reality. A 25% grower for 30 years would imply the dividend exceeds the entire current market cap. To stay honest, this calculator uses a two-stage growth-decay model: it keeps your input growth rate for the first 5 years (where companies typically continue their recent trend), then linearly tapers it toward a long-run market average of 6% by year 15, and holds 6% flat after that.

The 6% taper target is roughly the long-run S&P-500 nominal total return minus inflation — i.e. the headroom available for sustainable dividend growth without outpacing the underlying business's earnings. It's a deliberately optimistic ceiling, higher than the 3% long-run dividend-only median used elsewhere on the site (the Damodaran median); the deviation matches this calculator's product positioning as the optimistic "projection" tool rather than the conservative "discount valuation" tool. (Note: the 6% here applies to the dividend growth ceiling — distinct from the separate 8% total return assumption used below for reinvestment-price growth, which is dividend yield + price appreciation combined.)

Two things move at once. The per-share dividend climbs as the growth rate decays. If you also enter a cost basis, the calculator simulates reinvestment: each year's dividend buys more shares at a price that grows at 8% total return minus the current yield (matching the DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) calculator's assumption). After ten years, your single original share has become 1.X shares, and the total cash dividend you'd collect that year is shares × per-share dividend. The chart shows both: the cumulative cash you'd have collected and pocketed, and the cumulative value if you'd reinvested. The gap between them is compounding's signature.

The Yield-on-Cost (YoC) badge — visible only when you supply a cost basis — answers "what does this position yield against what I originally paid?" If a stock pays $2 today on a $100 share, its current yield is 2%; if its dividend reaches $5 in year 10, your yield-on-cost is 5% — even though new buyers in year 10 might still see only a 3% yield because the share price grew too. YoC is the single number long-term dividend investors care about most.

When to use this calculator:

  • Estimating retirement income from a buy-and-hold position. Pair the year-N total dividend hero with the Income Replacement Calculator to size a basket.
  • Evaluating a dividend-grower's compounding potential. Combine with the DRIP calculator for the share-count side of the same simulation.
  • Sensitivity-checking a dividend stock pitch. Toggle the taper off to see the unbounded "if the trend continues" upside, then back on to see the regression-to-mean-corrected number.

When NOT to use it:

  • You are projecting a stock with a known cut risk. The model assumes the dividend grows; it does not predict cuts. Pair with the Dividend Safety Snapshot calc.
  • You need monthly or quarterly resolution. This calc is annual-only by design.
  • You need a real (inflation-adjusted) number. All values are nominal.

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only. Numbers come from public market data and may be stale. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.